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Oct 11, 2023

Updated Celtics vs. Heat Series Odds and NBA Championship Odds After Boston Wins Game 4

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Half of the 2023 NBA finals matchup was set on Monday night as the Denver Nuggets finished off a sweep of the L.A. Lakers. For the first half of Tuesday's Game 4 between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics, it looked as though Miami was going to pull off a shocking sweep of its own.

But the Celtics overcame a six-point halftime deficit to runaway with Game 4 (116-99) and avoid the sweep. Heading back to Boston down 3-1, the Celtics saw their odds to win the series improve from +900 to +220.

Miami was a monstrous -1200 favorite to win the best-of-seven series heading into Game 4. After Tuesday's devastating setback, the Heat's odds faded all the way to -270. Put another way, Miami's implied win probability dropped from 92.31% to 72.97%.

Boston, the No. 2 seed in the East, opened the series as a massive -475 favorite to win the Eastern Conference for the second consecutive season. Even after dropping Game 1 at home, they remained roughly -225 favorites to win the series. Only after dropping Game 2 at home did oddsmakers finally move the needle far enough to render Miami the favorite.

Now, of course, the needle is swinging back. And if Game 5 plays out as oddsmakers expect - Boston opened as a 7.5-point favorite and -300 on the moneyline - bettors can expect these odds to be nearly even when the series shifts back to Miami for a Game 6 on Saturday.

With the daunting fact that no NBA team has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit looming over Game 4, many assumed the reeling Celtics - who were blown out 128-102 in Game 3 - were dead in the water. And when they fell down six at the break, it's safe to assume that someone in a backroom at the Kaseya Center started ripping the tape off of the "Miami Heat Eastern Conference Champion" t-shirts.

But Jayson Tatum showed championship mettle in the third quarter, leading his team to a 38-23 rout over that decisive 12 minutes. Boston increased its lead early in the fourth and the benches were emptied with over a minute to play in a game that had long been decided.

Tatum finished Game 4 with 33 points on 14-22 shooting, including 4-8 from three. He also lead Boston with 11 boards and seven assists. But Boston's win was anything but a one-man show: all five starters finished with 11 points or more and Grant Williams added 14 off the bench to cap off a brilliantly balanced offensive performance from Joe Mazzulla's squad.

When Denver closed out their series with the Lakers last night, and it was presumed Miami would be its NBA Finals opponent, the Nuggets were listed as short as -285 to win their first-ever NBA championship.

However, Boston's win on Tuesday did more than shakeup the Eastern Conference odds. The Nuggets' odds to win the title faded to -210. The Heat, meanwhile, saw their odds go from roughly +270 to +360.

The Celtics, on the other hand, improved drastically, going from +1550 to +450.

Up until their Game 2 loss to Miami, Boston had been the NBA title favorite ever since the Milwaukee Bucks fell in Game 1 of their opening-round series with the Heat (and saw Giannis Antetokounmpo get injured in the process).

Boston was even listed as an odds-on favorite to win the 2023 NBA title at certain sportsbooks before the conference finals commenced.

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